Fire AggroTier 1
at Store Championship DTR
Pilot Skill ↓ low
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 43.3% | 7 | 4-3-0 | 57.1% | 54.5% | 52.5% | +1.2 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 13.3% | 4 | 1-3-0 | 25.0% | 37.5% | 43.9% | -3.9 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.6% | +9.0 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 6.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 52.2% | +3.5 |
| Wind Allies | 6.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.8 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 6.7% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 56.5% | +10.4 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.2% | +6.7 |
| Fire Tera Cleric | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ranger | 3.3% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.6% | +16.9 |
| Slimes | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.1% | -15.9 |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.8% | -9.9 |
| Water Fractal | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 3.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.9% | -9.8 |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Aggro decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
Mirror Analysis
In 2 mirror matches, here are the card-count differences that most often separated the winning deck from the losing one. Staples (cards both decks run at the same count) are filtered out — only flex slots show up below. Cards whose count only differed in fewer than 3 mirrors are also held back as too sparse to call a pattern (still visible in the raw table further down). Small sample warning: 2 mirrors is borderline; treat these as suggestive, not conclusive.
No card differed in at least 3 of the 2 mirrors we have. The raw table below has the sparse signals that didn't clear the threshold — treat them as noise unless the sample grows.
Show all 82 cards with non-zero signal (raw numbers, including 82 held back from the grid above)
| Card | Edge | In winner | In loser | Same | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reduce to Ash | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Rile the Abyss | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Undying Dreams | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Liminal Guide | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Forgelight Blade | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hone by Fire | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Sword of Seeking | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Xiao Qiao, Cinderkeeper | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Flame Sweep | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Reimagined | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Peppered Chef | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Evercurrent Raider | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Hasty Messenger | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Blademaster | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Crystallized Destiny | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Momentum | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Drawn Blade | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clarent, Sword of Peace | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Fiery Interference | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Lorraine, Wandering Warrior | +1.00 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
| Impact Hammer | -1.00 | 0 | 2 | 0 | |
| Vermilion Decree | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Flash Grenade | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Expose Darkness | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Increasing Danger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Evasive Maneuvers | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fire Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Calamity Cannon | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Polkhawk, Boisterous Riot | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Quickdraw Piercer | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Automaton Bomber | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Heated Vengeance | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Grand Crusader's Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Ranger Strides | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Reckoning's Wake | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Smoke Out | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Arthur, Young Heir | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Flamebolt Arbalist | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Demolition | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Backup Charger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incendiary Shot | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Creative Shock | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Blazing Bowman | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Vengeful Paramour | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Wind Resonance Bauble | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Cremation Ritual | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tinderflare Pivot | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Bombard Flarecannon | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Volatile Fusilier | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blazing Throw | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Marksman Captain | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Airship Cannoneer | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| The Looking Glass | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Tariff Ring | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Rending Flames | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Red Hare, Unrivaled Stallion | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 1 | |
| Nullifying Mirror | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 1 | |
| Mad Hatter, Morose Heritor | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Unyielding Wraithguard | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Veteran Blazebearer | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Staggering Strike | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Gildas, Chronicler of Aesa | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Planted Explosive | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sable Remnant | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Varuckan Soulknife | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Rococo, Explosive Maven | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mercenary's Blade | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Intensified Pyre | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Mark the Target | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Dazzling Courtesan | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Blinding Orb | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Safeguard Amulet | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Sword Saint of Everflame | +0.50 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Corhazi Courier | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Incapacitate | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Fanatical Devotee | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Poisoned Dagger | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Censer of Restful Peace | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Zander, Prepared Scout | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| March Hare, Mottled Host | -0.50 | 0 | 1 | 0 | |
| Water Resonance Bauble | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 | |
| Clumsy Apprentice | +0.00 | 1 | 1 | 0 |